Preseason Rankings
South Dakota
Summit League
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#134
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.8#64
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#164
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#104
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.6% 23.4% 10.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.8 14.7
.500 or above 79.6% 81.5% 53.0%
.500 or above in Conference 84.6% 85.8% 68.7%
Conference Champion 26.0% 26.9% 13.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.8% 5.4%
First Four2.2% 2.2% 1.8%
First Round21.7% 22.5% 10.3%
Second Round3.9% 4.1% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.5% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Home) - 93.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 1.50.1 - 1.5
Quad 1b0.2 - 0.90.3 - 2.4
Quad 20.6 - 1.50.9 - 3.9
Quad 33.7 - 3.44.7 - 7.3
Quad 412.2 - 2.916.8 - 10.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2018 326   Northern Arizona W 78-65 93%    
  Nov 16, 2018 255   High Point W 74-66 75%    
  Nov 18, 2018 212   Air Force W 73-68 69%    
  Nov 19, 2018 214   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 75-69 69%    
  Nov 27, 2018 48   @ Baylor L 68-75 17%    
  Dec 01, 2018 204   Cal St. Bakersfield W 70-65 76%    
  Dec 04, 2018 84   @ Colorado L 70-74 28%    
  Dec 08, 2018 279   UMKC W 79-70 85%    
  Dec 16, 2018 180   @ Colorado St. W 76-73 51%    
  Dec 18, 2018 1   @ Kansas L 67-84 4%    
  Dec 21, 2018 163   Southern Miss W 73-71 67%    
  Dec 29, 2018 199   @ North Dakota St. W 74-69 55%    
  Jan 02, 2019 200   @ Denver W 74-69 55%    
  Jan 06, 2019 79   South Dakota St. L 76-80 47%    
  Jan 13, 2019 169   Purdue Fort Wayne W 81-78 68%    
  Jan 17, 2019 283   @ Oral Roberts W 76-67 69%    
  Jan 20, 2019 253   @ Nebraska Omaha W 81-73 65%    
  Jan 23, 2019 271   @ North Dakota W 80-72 68%    
  Jan 26, 2019 270   Western Illinois W 76-68 83%    
  Jan 30, 2019 169   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 81-78 48%    
  Feb 07, 2019 253   Nebraska Omaha W 81-73 81%    
  Feb 10, 2019 283   Oral Roberts W 76-67 83%    
  Feb 16, 2019 270   @ Western Illinois W 76-68 67%    
  Feb 20, 2019 200   Denver W 74-69 74%    
  Feb 23, 2019 79   @ South Dakota St. L 76-80 29%    
  Feb 28, 2019 199   North Dakota St. W 74-69 73%    
  Mar 02, 2019 271   North Dakota W 80-72 82%    
Projected Record 16.8 - 10.2 10.5 - 5.5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.4 6.7 7.1 4.8 1.5 26.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.7 7.6 7.9 4.2 0.9 24.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.9 6.9 4.5 1.1 0.1 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.9 2.3 0.4 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.6 1.2 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.3 0.8 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.9 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.1 6.2 8.5 10.6 13.1 13.7 13.4 11.0 8.0 4.8 1.5 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
15-1 100.0% 4.8    4.5 0.3
14-2 88.7% 7.1    5.5 1.6 0.0
13-3 61.1% 6.7    4.1 2.5 0.2
12-4 32.7% 4.4    1.8 1.9 0.7 0.0
11-5 9.4% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 26.0% 26.0 17.6 6.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.5% 86.8% 77.7% 9.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 41.0%
15-1 4.8% 66.2% 63.2% 2.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.6 7.9%
14-2 8.0% 49.6% 49.0% 0.6% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 4.0 1.2%
13-3 11.0% 36.4% 36.0% 0.4% 13.8 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.2 7.0 0.6%
12-4 13.4% 27.4% 27.4% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.5 9.7 0.0%
11-5 13.7% 19.3% 19.3% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.7 11.1
10-6 13.1% 14.8% 14.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 11.2
9-7 10.6% 9.4% 9.4% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 9.6
8-8 8.5% 5.8% 5.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 8.0
7-9 6.2% 3.8% 3.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.0
6-10 4.1% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 3.9
5-11 2.6% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 2.6
4-12 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-13 0.7% 0.7
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 22.6% 22.2% 0.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.5 4.2 5.7 4.6 3.9 77.4 0.5%